Grain Express

Posted: Sept. 8, 2021, 2:32 p.m.

Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures made new lows for the move to start the week, much of which is attributed to technical and seasonal pressure. Barchart released their estimates yesterday which may have been an added headwind to the market. They have the national corn yield at 183.6 bushels per acre, 9 bushels more than the USDA estimates. This puts production at 15.4 billion bushels. This seems optimistic in our minds, but we applaud them for sticking to their models and not fallowing the herd into the echo chamber. The next USDA report is this Friday, out at 11:00 AM CT. The average analyst estimate for yield is 175.8 bushels per acre. The average analyst estimate for harvested acres is 85.1 million and the average estimate for production is 14.942 billion bushels. For those of you still paying attention to crop progress, Good/Excellent conditions dropped 1% to 59%. 21% of the crop is mature.

Technicals: The market traded into 4-star technical support which we’ve outlined as 507-514 ¼. This is a wider range than we would typically use, but there’s a lot of significance in that pocket. If you’ve been short, this isn’t a bad spot to look at reducing some of that exposure. If you want to be long, this isn’t a bad spot to dip your toes in on the long side. A break and close below here could spark additional long liquidation, so that would be the “tap out” spot.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 529 ½-533***, 551 ½-555 ½****, 561 ¼-563 ½**

Support: 507-514 ¼****, 500 ¼**

Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures made new lows for the move to start the week, much of which is attributed to technical and seasonal pressure. Barchart released their estimates yesterday which may have been an added headwind to the market. They have the national corn yield at 183.6 bushels per acre, 9 bushels more than the USDA estimates. This puts production at 15.4 billion bushels. This seems optimistic in our minds, but we applaud them for sticking to their models and not fallowing the herd into the echo chamber. The next USDA report is this Friday, out at 11:00 AM CT. The average analyst estimate for yield is 175.8 bushels per acre. The average analyst estimate for harvested acres is 85.1 million and the average estimate for production is 14.942 billion bushels. For those of you still paying attention to crop progress, Good/Excellent conditions dropped 1% to 59%. 21% of the crop is mature.

Technicals: The market traded into 4-star technical support which we’ve outlined as 507-514 ¼. This is a wider range than we would typically use, but there’s a lot of significance in that pocket. If you’ve been short, this isn’t a bad spot to look at reducing some of that exposure. If you want to be long, this isn’t a bad spot to dip your toes in on the long side. A break and close below here could spark additional long liquidation, so that would be the “tap out” spot.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 529 ½-533***, 551 ½-555 ½****, 561 ¼-563 ½**

Support: 507-514 ¼****, 500 ¼**

Wheat (December)

Technicals: December Chicago wheat futures were on both sides of unchanged yesterday, finishing the day in negative territory. The bearish head and shoulders formation remains intact so long as the bears can continue to defend 744 ¾-750. With that said, short term traders will have opportunity on both sides of the market.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 744 ¾-750****, 770 ½**, 786 ½* 799-801 ½**

Pivot: 718 ½-723 ½

Support: 694 ¾-700****



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